Analysts predict bounce in July NPD figures

PlayStation 3 price drop expected to put Sony's console over Xbox 360 sales for first time in the US.

It's been a trying first year for the PlayStation 3, with Sony's console being routinely bested on the industry-tracking NPD Group's US monthly retail sales charts by the Wii, the Xbox 360, and on particularly rough months, the Game Boy Advance. Things improved a bit with the July announcement of a price drop for the 60GB PS3 (and the subsequent news that the drop was effectively temporary), which quickly doubled sales of the console, according to Sony.

Now a pair of analysts is predicting that when the NPD Group releases its July sales figures next Thursday, they'll show that Sony's console outsold the Xbox 360 for the first time since its release last November. Wedbush Morgan Securities' Michael Pachter and the SimExchange's Jesse Divnich have released their expectations for July sales, and they've pegged PS3 sales at 160,000 and 165,000, respectively. (Divnich's hardware numbers were derived from the fluctuations of the SimExchange's own user-driven prediction market.)

By comparison, Pachter believes the Xbox 360 tallied 115,000 sales for the month, with Divnich suggesting Microsoft's system netted 142,000 sales. Pachter said sales of the Xbox 360 could have been hurt temporarily by the company's recent warranty extension calling attention to hardware reliability problems.

Regardless of Sony's PS3 push, both think the still-pricey system will again fall short of Nintendo's DS and Wii tag team. Divnich has the DS topping all systems for the month with 491,000 sold, and the Wii following at 369,000 units. Pachter is more reserved, expecting 450,000 DS sales and 330,000 Wii sales. As for the PlayStation Portable, Pachter projected sales of 225,000 for the handheld, compared to Divnich's expectation of 238,000.

Just as Divnich was consistently more bullish on hardware sales, he was also more optimistic about software. Divnich reasoned that July 2007 offerings like Guitar Hero Encore: Rocks the 80s, All-Pro Football 2K8, and NASCAR 08 would help offset the absence of July 2006's big hit Prey. He expects the NPD figures to show July software sales up between 19 percent and 26 percent, into the $459 million to $487 million range. On the other hand, Pachter projects software sales of $425 million, up "just" 12.5 percent over last year due to tough comparisons.

425 Comments

  • packernation31

    Posted Aug 21, 2007 1:14 pm PT

    PS3 is screwed in the u.s.

  • effthat

    Posted Aug 21, 2007 10:34 am PT

    Sony sells a limited time offer...sales go up...

    sounds logical! But what does this mean really?

    still no exclusives worth the ticket price and the hd format war is only now starting to slow...

    PS3 might bump 360 in July, but then Augusts numbers put it right back at the bottom of the pile...

    A limited time offer by Sony on a product that they already lose money on isn't going to change Playstation. IN FACT price cuts and an influx of business is a precursor to no longer doing business.

    The technology is too new and not affordable enough to capture enough of the current market for Playstation to recover. Sony needs a Playstation 2.5 and blocked itself off from that option when they opted to put all their money on the fact that Bluray would bring out a quick enough win to reach mass production in a year.

    They took a risk that would have had a huge payoff and those risks also have horrible rates of success. The risk didn't pay off and now their stuck with a product that doesn't move. Now it's time for the Marketing Department to either find a way that they CAN move the product OR for R&D to get the bucks it needs to find a middle ground.

  • Dralt

    Posted Aug 20, 2007 9:30 pm PT

    I haven't bought a game for my 360 since Vegas.

    I am going to get Bioshock, Halo 3 and Mass Effect. All the rest will PS3 for me, a total of 13 PS3 games in 3 months.

    The 360 line-up is a little light this year.

  • lamprey263

    Posted Aug 20, 2007 4:11 pm PT

    In other news, Sony audit finds the biggest waste of Sony's money goes to the bribing of industry analysts to write flavorful reports on the company's prospects just kidding

  • LamendolaM

    Posted Aug 20, 2007 2:19 pm PT

    I farted.

  • Houston2007

    Posted Aug 20, 2007 12:53 pm PT

    Everybody is divided still! The Xbox 360 has a lot of good games now and coming. I personally own the 360 and I'm still playing Gears of War! The PS3 does have Blu-Ray, but that doen't mean everybody and their mamma breaking their necks to buy Blu-Ray considering that 300 is $30 on Blu-Ray and HD-DVD (DVD Combo where it will play on regular DVD Players0 Some Consumers will say hey the 300 DVD is $20 but think I can get the HD DVD now for $10 more and upgrade later to Xbox 360 HD DVD Player for $180 and play 1080p in the future. I'm laughing at a friend on my Xbox Live friend who went and brought a PS3 system for $500 to play the games! I asked what games and Blu-Ray movies you brought? His response was none! My next quest I asked was what are you doing with it! His response was downloading game demos and play that because I got to wait for the games on PS3! There's the point no games to play! Honestly EA and other companies don't want to waist money on game development for PS3. This what I don't understand about Sony. Why drop the price to $500 on a 60GB with Emotion Engine and release a system with no emotion engine and 80GB for $600. They need to to be $500 and $400! Problem is its still a difficult system to develop for. The 360 may have problem until the 65nm processor chips released. Right now on my 360 I'm streaming music and MPEG-4 Videos from my PC. Well as talking and video chatting with friends all over the wotld. I'm renting movies and buying TV Shows on Xbox Live Marketplace. I don't know about you guys but Microsoft has proven itself on the Xbox 360. Sony hasn't proved anything but they have a cheap Blu-ray for $500. That's it!

  • shinchy

    Posted Aug 20, 2007 12:16 pm PT

    God bless the Wii, who'd have thought. Definatly not me; whilst everyone is at war with Sony and Microsoft Nintendo is sneaking off into the Distance.

  • champhf

    Posted Aug 20, 2007 12:11 pm PT

    guys stop the madness if you are fortunate to own a nex-gen system be happy at least your not like some of these loosers who don't own one and posting these rediculous comments.

  • BullDogSquad

    Posted Aug 20, 2007 11:30 am PT

    I own a 360, PS3, and a Wii. And Honestly I have not played a game on my PS3 since motorstorm. With all the games hitting the 360 this year I don't think Ill be purchasing a game for my PS3 for a long time.

  • GamerShock

    Posted Aug 20, 2007 11:16 am PT

    The only reason sales of the PS3 are this strong, is they are still the cheapest Blueray players on the Market. You would have to be a fool to purchase a PS3 for playing games (What the hell happend to Killzone Sony? That's where you blew it).

    Don't know how many of you have the HD player for the 360, but if you do, you know that going to a video store and looking for titles is an almost useless excursion. Blueray blows HD out of the water as it pertains to content, and let's be honest, it's the only thing that matters (almost the antithisis of the Beta/VHS wars).

    So with that blustery comment out of the way, if Microsoft wants to end Sony's PS3 sales, come out with a $300-$400 Blueray add-on. (Ya I know Universal would be pissed, but MS doesn't seem to care who it pisses off (reference, Microsoft Vista)).

  • atrimus

    Posted Aug 20, 2007 9:38 am PT

    Re: "Im not too sure what the hell Patcher and Dinki are talkin about, but I work at EBGames and we barely sold any ps3's this month or last. The wii still has a 300 person waiting list and we sell at least 60 360's a month. I also just received the new 80g Ps3 and people who come in to inquire about it end up getting pissed off because they were saving to buy a 60g and they are almost out of stock. So they end up buying a 360. Thats a pretty ballzy prediction considering the 360 has some Blockbuster titles coming out this month. Bioshock, Two Worlds etc. So I really cant imagine the ps3's triumpant month. I really would have to see this to believe it. If it happens, I will own up to it but I think reality will set in."

    okay, for starters Bioshock comes/came out in August. this article is about sales in JULY, in which the biggest gaming news was...PS3's "price-cut". secondly, you're contradicting yourself. first you say no one buys PS3's, then you say the 60gb model is out of stock. for a model to be out of stock, doesn't that mean that it must've SOLD-OUT? you say people get pissed because they've saved their hard-earned money for a 60 gb PS3 and they can't get one because its ALMOST out of stock? then, why are they pissed? i mean, they can still get one, as ALMOST out of stock translates to there are SOME STILL AVAILABLE. thirdly: no offense, but you're just ONE store. most analysts have much more impartial end-sources to base their predictions on, other than just ONE game-speciality store.

  • dryden555

    Posted Aug 20, 2007 9:29 am PT

    bioshock might sell some more 360's than usual right now, but otherwise nothing's gonna cause big sales until xmas time.

  • rtehrani

    Posted Aug 20, 2007 9:28 am PT

    "skiggy80"

    apparantly he doesnt know conversion, 599 euros is $807.

  • Merodach

    Posted Aug 20, 2007 9:24 am PT

    We'll see what will become of the PS3 once the year ends. I doubt Sony will lift the PS3 out of third place this year, or ever for that matter

  • Skiggy80

    Posted Aug 20, 2007 9:20 am PT

    "mariussaldukas " Im tired of hearing all you Euro's **** about Americans all the time. Everytime I read a forum, I always read some european or aussi complaining about what American's say. 599 euro's is NOT equivalent to $1500 usd. Learn your currency! Do you really think Sony would charge you $1000 more??? Thats got to be the funniest thing I have ever heard! I agree the PS3 is pricey but enouigh is enough with what we get here in America and what you get in Europe. Stop feeling sorry for yourselves. Where do you think the mass market is? Here in US! Come on man, I got nothin but love for all of you over there but lets stop hating on Americans for once. Thats all I ever hear!

  • Skiggy80

    Posted Aug 20, 2007 9:12 am PT

    Im not too sure what the hell Patcher and Dinki are talkin about, but I work at EBGames and we barely sold any ps3's this month or last. The wii still has a 300 person waiting list and we sell at least 60 360's a month. I also just received the new 80g Ps3 and people who come in to inquire about it end up getting pissed off because they were saving to buy a 60g and they are almost out of stock. So they end up buying a 360. Thats a pretty ballzy prediction considering the 360 has some Blockbuster titles coming out this month. Bioshock, Two Worlds etc. So I really cant imagine the ps3's triumpant month. I really would have to see this to believe it. If it happens, I will own up to it but I think reality will set in.

  • okassar

    Posted Aug 20, 2007 8:08 am PT

    I own a 360,but personally,I think the PS3 is capable of doing even a bit better than the 360.What's the problem then?Sony is lazy,they took too long on their console to be able to sell it good at the given price(at that time $600),and even now,is still the most expensive system around.Sony is also not getting deals with enough companies and making it hard on the software companies that do agree to make games for their system by apparently sending confusing developers' kits.That way,the PS3 is unattractive to developers,and then,especially with its price tag,to customers.Another thing is that people expected much more out of Sony after they showed off and all,claiming that the PS3 would be the ignition for next-gen gaming....first of all,the 360 was,second of all,they would have been right if they did a good job with the PS3.Last of all,even though it's free,the PS3's internet service is definitely not at the scale of Xbox Live,but Home is a nice addition.May I also point out that Sony was cocky about the "high amount of gigabytes and HDMI" in the PS3,well looky here,the Xbox 360 Elite has 120 gigabytes and HDMI compatibility at only $450.Even the $400 Halo Edition 360 has HDMI compatibility,cool design,and along with all the stuff that usually come with a 360,a free play and charge kit.Sony has ALOT of problems to overcome if it wishes to overide its competition.Take a look at all the amazing new games coming to the 360 this fall and my point is furthermore proven.

  • mariussaldukas

    Posted Aug 20, 2007 8:04 am PT

    All should stop crying one day, one is more expensive than the other, 400$ is so expensive I won't buy it. You want HD games, short loading times, fabulous gameplay, so be prepared to spend something for your hardware. I can't understand why USA is crying about it being expensive, try spending 599 euros for your console and not getting as much as you get in USA, that is like 1500$, I would love to hear what you be saying then.

  • GreenHornet00

    Posted Aug 20, 2007 7:29 am PT

    "The PS3 was the last Console to be launched. Naturally It will be behind. For now..."

    Nope, Wii came last.

  • Space-Q

    Posted Aug 20, 2007 7:20 am PT

    "Too little, too late? The PS3 hasn't even been out a year yet."


    You guys can talk sales all you want but, no matter how many times I hear that excuse it never makes my PS3 fun. It's easily the most boring system I have ever owned.

  • Ross20_PS3_OWNS

    Posted Aug 20, 2007 7:02 am PT

    The PS3 was the last Console to be launched. Naturally It will be behind. For now...

  • Obliterati

    Posted Aug 20, 2007 6:52 am PT

    LOL, fanboys.

  • DS_fan_atic

    Posted Aug 20, 2007 6:39 am PT

    Wii and DS are still unstoppable

  • Emory_Bortz

    Posted Aug 20, 2007 5:35 am PT

    Too little, too late? The PS3 hasn't even been out a year yet.

  • AceCometh

    Posted Aug 20, 2007 4:42 am PT

    The Xbox 360 was still cheaper than the PS3 after it's price drop, yet the 360 has been dropped in price none the less. The PS3 is also lacking games. My money's in Microsoft's corner. Sorry, Sony. Too little. Too late.

  • wars45

    Posted Aug 20, 2007 4:39 am PT

    nice one if the ps3 was the same price has 360 ps3 would rip it to bits i think come nov to dec ps3 sales will rise has ther a lot of games coming out then love ps3 love it

  • IceStorm-Br posted Aug 20, 2007 3:44 am PT (does not meet display criteria. sign in to show)

    IceStorm-Br

    Posted Aug 20, 2007 3:44 am PT (hide)

    If XBOX360 was not made by the giant Microsoft already he had been removed of the market due low the quality. But being an American product the same it can fail some times without bigger consequences. Its cheap but failure more, its strong due GREAT games and for being a Microsoft product.

  • No-Go-Zone

    Posted Aug 20, 2007 3:17 am PT

    ok then lets sick some figures in instead oh numbers shall we? ok here goes : ps3 is 425 pounds times 162,500 = basically 69 mill pounds. 360= 250 pounds times 128,000 = 32 mill so even if ps3 got lower sales more money is being spent on ps3... imagine if ps3 was the same price. no contest

  • lee_asid

    Posted Aug 20, 2007 3:12 am PT

    cut down the price to $300 then maybe it will sell like pancakes!!

  • NinjaMunkey01

    Posted Aug 20, 2007 1:27 am PT

    the ps3 would be selling more if we could see what the ps3 could really do. I own a ps3 and it is great but there wont really be a rush for the ps3 for a year or 2 until developers optimise the ps3. it is powerful but complicated but once developers really take advantage of the ps3 we will see news like this on a monthly basis once the ps3's graphics are surpasing the 360's. but for now while games are cheaper and look slightly better on the 360 thats the console I will buy my mulit platform games fo. unless the internet play is good.
    no one can pretend that the ps3 is not as powerfull as the 360. it is obvious that the console is capable of loads more than the 360 is and soon we will see what it can really do. and I personally can NOT wait for it.

  • dynomitemasta

    Posted Aug 20, 2007 12:41 am PT

    PureDante, I think your a bit mixed up about the upcoming releases on the PS3 and the 360. Go to IGN ang look at the upcomming releases for both consoles. It's the 360 wkith the sheet load of games, and the PS3 with a few good ones sprinkled in

  • MichaeltheCM

    Posted Aug 20, 2007 12:39 am PT

    PS3 sales over 360 in USA? pfff yeah right!

  • dynomitemasta

    Posted Aug 20, 2007 12:26 am PT

    Well, if Sony only outsells MS by 25,000, it will never catch up to their installed base. As Sony might be selling, . . so is the 360. Don't get me wrong, I'm glad for Sony, but I live in reality too. They are going to really have to jack it up from there and double that figure.

  • condemned100

    Posted Aug 20, 2007 12:08 am PT

    Bioshock is awesome.

  • bluefox755

    Posted Aug 19, 2007 11:22 pm PT

    I own a 360, and unlike most of the posters here, my mom ain't gonna buy me a new video game system if I whine enough....so....Yea, I'll stick with my 360 for now probably till final fantasy 13, in which case I'll buy a PS3 as well, so I'll have 2 systems...but that will be like...quite a ways from now, and by then I'll be able to afford a PS3...about the FF games having too many sequals...thats a lame argument since every game is a completely new game that has nothing to do with the prequel...excluding X2, Heavenly Sword looks pretty awesome...but other than that, there is really nothing on PS3 that makes me wanna fork over that much money, and the exclusives matter since games from the 2 systems look nearly identically in terms of graphics...we need more system sellers on both systems, lol...and PS3 desperately needs Final Fantasy 13....or at least a square game...but until then, I'll have to settle for blue dragon...little kiddie looking, but its square, and 3 DVDs....thats gotta be a record, lol...anyhow, thats my 2 cents

  • solo4321

    Posted Aug 19, 2007 10:58 pm PT

    go 360!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!yeah

  • condemned100

    Posted Aug 19, 2007 10:27 pm PT

    This is great news for Sony, Now i need to go to my local Target or Walmart and buy myself a 60 GB PS3 for $499.99.

  • Platyphyllum

    Posted Aug 19, 2007 10:03 pm PT

    Yaay, this is nice for Sony. Although, I don't really want the PS3.

  • roelrdzjr

    Posted Aug 19, 2007 10:00 pm PT

    This is good news for ps3 owners because the game developers will take the ps3 more seriously but i still want a 360.

  • PureDante posted Aug 19, 2007 9:54 pm PT (does not meet display criteria. sign in to show)

    PureDante

    Posted Aug 19, 2007 9:54 pm PT (hide)

    LMAO notice how more people are bashing the ps3 then praising it, this is why ps3 fialz in america lol...
    GO SONY WOO! congrats, you deserve it honestly theres 2 games coming for x360 this year, and just how many for ps3? a sheet load.

  • michial1890

    Posted Aug 19, 2007 9:24 pm PT

    Im with deedeedee69. Grow up these are gaming consoles. They are all awesome. I own all three and cant wait for cool stiff on each GROW UP FANBOYS OF ALL STRIPES. Were talking games people. Not anything that really matters!

  • deedeedee69

    Posted Aug 19, 2007 9:13 pm PT

    i think its funny how some of you are fighting over consoles & games

  • Warfust

    Posted Aug 19, 2007 9:06 pm PT

    Sony simply priced themselves out of the market. The number of people willing to jump at a reduced price system speaks volumes.

  • crod200

    Posted Aug 19, 2007 8:58 pm PT

    It’s really ironic that the PS2 is actually hurting the progress of the PS3. PS2 is still outselling the PS3!!! Hardware and Software!!!! Just goes to show how great the PS2 is.

  • soldier1993

    Posted Aug 19, 2007 7:37 pm PT

    Sony is facing tough times! too sad, they make a lot of good games.

  • Xaovagon

    Posted Aug 19, 2007 7:31 pm PT

    It wont happen long, because of the massive success of Bioshock and Halo 3 pre orders eventually will make it last a week then the 360 will be ahead again

  • trigger501

    Posted Aug 19, 2007 7:30 pm PT

    I have a 360, not a PS3 coz its too expensive atm. But i still laugh at the 360 fans that dumps on the PS3 coz its got sequals on the line up... FFS who cares if they are sequals or not, they are good if they are good, I personally like all of the FF games, let me say again ALL of the Final Fantasy games, i did like Killzone and by the looks of the video of the nxt one it looks like im gonna like it again. Sometimes being a sequal IS the reason why i get the game, because i wanna follow the story like MGS, i have to admit 360 has alot of original tittles but seriously some of them isnt up to my expectations, if it wasnt for gears of war i think i might of bought a PS3. but then again most games that shows promise isnt even out yet, so please DON'T BASH Consoles... Not yet anyway. I think the only way i would truely bash a console is when they have the same games on both consoles but there is a massive price diff... thats it.. i think both consoles deserves praises not $#%^$# comments....

  • Xaovagon

    Posted Aug 19, 2007 7:22 pm PT

    we'll see, i doubt it though

  • condemned100

    Posted Aug 19, 2007 6:31 pm PT

    It says in this Article "Analysts Predict" bounce in July NPD figures, they are only predicting what they think might happen to the NPD figures for July which was Last Month. But they're No Psychics.

  • Valkron1

    Posted Aug 19, 2007 6:24 pm PT

    That's some very nice guessing. Now if these psychics could just tell me what stocks are going to double in the next 3 months I'll be set.
    Wait a second, these guys are predicting the July sales numbers? Okay, they are predicting numbers released on Tuesday for the following month. Alright, I predict Ford motors will lose 12.7 billion dollars last year. WOW, this is easy. As for numbers and Tuesday I'll be too busy playing Bioshock and counting the minutes till I have to go to work.

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