Next gen will be the last, says God of War creator
By
Eddie Makuch, News Editor
David Jaffe believes next Xbox, PS4, and Wii U will be final wave of new consoles, predicts streaming options bundled with TV sets as future.
Consoles will die off after the Wii U, PlayStation 4, and next Xbox, according to God of War and Twisted Metal creator David Jaffe. The outspoken developer told Games Industry International that not only will the next generation of consoles be the last, but these systems ought to be the last.
"Look, consoles are going away. I think in 10 years--probably sooner. But 10 years is always the safe thing to say so you don't sound like an idiot. But here's what I'll say: I'll go on the record and say that the next generation of hardware will be the last consoles. And they should be," Jaffe said.
Despite the prediction of consoles being cleared out, Jaffe believes Sony will continue to develop big-budget games like God of War and Uncharted, but these games will be streamed through new television sets.
"It doesn't mean you won't buy a piece of hardware from Sony, but you'll probably buy a television that streams the stuff," he said. "And you'll still have Sony, loud and proud and strong making these great, big, epic games like God of War and Uncharted, and they'll be making great little games like Sound Shapes, but they'll become more like movie studios for video games. I'll be able to stream in the next Uncharted and Plants vs. Zombies, and you won't even think about it."
The Wii U--due out worldwide this holiday season--is the only next-generation console officially confirmed. Future-generation systems from Microsoft and Sony have been the subject of great speculation, but neither company has gone on record regarding plans for new consoles. For more on the speculation related to the next generation, check out GameSpot's rumor roundup feature.
By
Eddie Makuch, News Editor
Eddie Makuch (Mack-ooh) is a News Editor at GameSpot. He works out of the company's Boston office in Somerville, Mass., and loves extra chunky peanut butter.
265 comments
Till that time there will be a World War III and not only games industry will fall, economics will fall down and you will just looking for foods to eat ... Remember this comment on 2020!!!
I respect David Jaffe and completely understand what he is trying to say. It's not put that well and allot of people don't understand what he means by it but to those who do, and you know who you are... kudos.I'm not about to waste my time interpreting thins one because I know I will run out of comment space.
1 Like I would like to think that when consoles become obsolete everybody has has a naked broadband line for free and all we need are a few peripherals to plug in and play anywhere.
But at present he is wandering about in a hoodie talking crap not helping anyone by speculating.
:)
1 Like Is Jaffe going to be paying to upgrade everyone to broadband AND convincing internet providers to remove bandwidth caps? Because otherwise, his little "prediction" is nothing more than the fevered pipedream of a clueless individual who is probably sad he lost money investing in OnLive.
@mrboone01 In ten years internet service and bandwith caps will more then likely be upgraded and far diffrent. I still remember ten years ago when on napster it took around 30 minutes to download a single three mintue song, now I can download an entire three hour movie in around ten mintues easy.
I've been thinking this since PS3, Xbox360, and Wii were all released. Gaming desperately needs to morph. The tech is there, it just needs to be used and gamers need to start demanding better.
2 Like I, myself, think this next generation will be the last that can support Three consoles, this next coming war will weed out one of the three for sure. As more varied gamers world wide are added - India, china, and undeveloped countries like Canada- it will be harder to transition games and consoles to those countries and still keep quality/sales high.
I am a nurse so my opinion carries no weight, but at least I dont sound as stupid as Jaffe above.
@jenovaschilld You're right, you don't sound as stupid, you sound considerably more stupid. Canada is not an undeveloped country, and it's dollar as of late has been at the very least equal to your "almighty" American one (sorry if I assumed that's where you are from, but you're the only people ignorant enough to think like this) Remember this when they buy up all of the properties that Americans can no longer afford, along with the console inside that is part of the mortgage
@jenovaschilld you don't sound as stupid as Jaffe but this entire "there's not room for three consoles" has already happened. There was a time when the Playstation 1, Sega Saturn and Panasonic 3DO were set to compete against each other. there was a time when Atari, Nintendo and the Sega Master System were out in competition. don't be surprised when 15 years from now there are a few major competitors trying to eat away at each other.
@jenovaschilld oh yeah and don't forget nintendo 64 for the PS1 and Saturn competition
1 Like It's so funny how people think that because they develop software they automatically know all there is to know about hardware.
@moviequest14 I understand your point. But David has a point also. think about the transition that happened to movies. DVD's and Blu-ray's still exist. But they are not the hot topic anymore. Everybody uses digital download and streaming because it is easier and more convenient. assuming that you have a fast internet connection, it is natural that this will happen to games also. onLive and Gaikai already signed deals with Samsung and LG.
2 Like I think streaming through televisions is the 100% absolute wrong way to do this.
Keep a dedicated gaming box you buy in a store. All it has to be is a a piece of plastic with a logo on it and a hard drive with an internet connection, video out and controller sensors. Then it doesn't matter what television I want to play video games on and you retain the biggest advantage consoles have, dedicated and uniform hardware specs.
You avoid worrying about specs for your TV, and avoid very expensive problems. What if the year before the companies start working with TV manufacturers to introduce this type of gaming you go out and spend $4000 on a 100inch 3d 1080p razor thin kick ass TV. oops its now obsolete if you want to play games. Your kid wants to play on his TV? Sorry gotta buy two new televisions to support your gaming app, and that app costs what? $300
@Bortson That is more than likely what will happen. I think integrating the platform into a TV is just another option showing that it's not limited to just traditional hardware. Unfortunately, the cost will still be relatively high to make up for the cost of servers capable of rendering and hosting the game. I could still see them charging ~$200 for one.
@demonic_85 I think we could agree that offering both methods would be fine. Unless there is a quantum leap in TV technology, which after 10 years there certainly could be, but for now, I still want my box
1 Like "Look, consoles are going away. I think in 10 years--probably sooner. But 10 years is always the safe thing to say so you don't sound like an idiot. But here's what I'll say: I'll go on the record and say that the next generation of hardware will be the last consoles. And they should be," - Still sounds like an idiot.
"It doesn't mean you won't buy a piece of hardware from Sony, but you'll probably buy a television that streams the stuff," - Stuff is a technical term.
Maybe Microsoft will start making TVs to compete with Sony so that they can stay in the video game market. Perhaps Jaffe is implying that in this future he speaks of, Microsoft has dropped out of the video game market, Nintendo has gone bankrupt and Sony is the only one left, so inventing a TV that streams only Sony content seems completely logical....sounds like a horrible future to me.
3 Like Ugh, I hope he's wrong. I don't want to stream games. Between bandwidth caps, unreliable/inconsistent broadband availability, and excessive DRM, that would just end up turning me off from gaming altogether.
@Bluebomber4evr He's talking about a 10yr period mate. I'd like to think all the main gaming countries are on at least 100mbps speeds by that time. Streaming - even in HD = no problem on 100mbps+ speeds. I also believe either Apple or Microsoft will invent a great solution for unifying all your DRM and it will simplify things greatly. Current DRM issues are caused by trying to come up with patch solutions on the run.
1 Like @damo320 I know he's talking about a 10 year period. I still don't like it. Even if broadband improves, the ISP providers, at least in the US, put some hefty caps on broadband and I don't see them being eased in the future. There's no way that bandwidth rates will improve enough in 10 years to accommodate a 1080p game. The infrastructure isn't there. Plus, they'll probably charge you full price just to "experience" the game and you won't own anything, not even a download. I'm not going to pay $60 to stream a friggin' game. I wouldn't even pay $20. That's a colossal ripoff.
1 Like @damo320 Oh don't get me started on the "cloud." If the PSN hack/outage from last year taught me anything (and it taught me several things, natch) it's that keeping everything on someone else's server out there just makes it a much bigger target to be stolen than on your HDD at home, and when that goes down you'll be without access for a long time. Last year we just couldn't play online multiplayer or download games. But if Jaffe has his way, a similar outage means you wouldn't be able to play at all.
@Bluebomber4evr According to broadband development charts within 10yrs most ISP's will be offering unlimited plans across the board. Eventually you will just be paying for varying speeds. WIthin 10yrs I think you'll see HDTV Smart "Computer / TVs" which will have 3 options.
1. Stream straight from game company (rented games)
2. Buy and play from your cloud storage
3. Buy, download and play from your TV's 100TB storage drive or an external storage drive located somewhere on your home network.
I personally hope that graphics max out sooner rather than later as that would mean storage capacity would be the only big requirement in future games.
@Norrie91 So which one would you buy, a console that was built into your TV or an console that you had to hook up to your TV?
1 Like
Also, that's not really what Jaffe was talking about anyway. He was talking about streaming games. My guess is he doesn't realize that a large portion of gamers out there either still don't have bandwidth or have services that are capped.
I'd much rather be able to upgrade my TV or console separately than have them both in one device.
@PresidentDman Sounds like it would be alot less hassle with a consolised TV. BUT price has a factor, also does anyone really enjoy the idea of buying a New TV every 5-10 years just for an updated console. Depends on how "updated" it REALLY is I guess....
Yes I know that, but still just because the next gen. COULD be the last doesn't mean it will be. Sony, MS and Nintendo will keep forking out new consoles just because they can and people will buy them even if they don't realise they're aren't any REAL Updates in them.
This is why I personally think there is (and should be) still a good few years left in the X360 and PS3 just because Nintendo are releasing a new console doesn't mean they have to. They have to take into account that the Wii was built using Last Gen. Tech and was only ever on par with the mega popular PS2. The Wii may have been popular but it was nothing Tech. Wise compared to the X360 and PS3.
@Norrie91 There will come a time when the graphics / resolutions will reach a maximum threshold. By that I mean the human eye is only capable of viewing x-amount of information (frames per second, resolution and colour spectrum). When all TV's attain max res (like Apples retina display tech) and all graphics intense games achieve maximum realism we have reached the maximum threshold. The only further development in game experience then becomes new methods of interaction or feedback sensations. The upgrade for graphics sake issue won't be around forever - or at least not based on the same way it happens currently.
1 Like He might be right, but it kind of fills me with dread. What happens when the zombie apocalypse comes? or Nuclear holocaust? All video games become useless. What am I the only one planning on sitting in a bunker playing old video games after the end of the world? I'd at least like them to continue stocking my future reserve until they are no longer able to. Once they go streaming they might as well end the world then.
I can see this happening, my next door neighbor has a Panasonic SMART TV and he can not only browse the web, stream and skype but the TV itself has the latest tech going including Bluetooth and voice controls. 10 years seems sensible but it depends on the available internet services which are actually not that bad in the UK. Virgin Media does up to 100mb for about £40 ($60) with a TV and phone package included in my area.
3 Like I like the box art, manual disc/cart, the 100% complete package.
I buy new and second hand. I only play original software.
This is not the future of video gaming, if it is then count me [and my money] out :P
Streaming content you never 'own' in any shape or form is evil.
Consoles and physical media fan for ever, why
well this will probably never happen - in one word
'Lag' - as in controller input to onscreen movement / action lag :P
6 Like
I don't necessarily require physical media, but I certainly prefer having a local copy of the game data. In fact, I won't pay for a game if I can't get a copy of the data. I want to be able to install and uninstall the game whenever I choose, tomorrow or ten years from now. Streaming games from a cloud service is taking a big risk that the games will still be available.
Look at Xbox Live. Games come and go from the service. Or sometimes a game is re-released and has to be modified because certain licenses are expired (for instance, Kawasaki being removed from the Virtual Console version of Wave Race). Streaming games leaves nothing stopping publishers from making games that expire (other than the ire of their customers). I certainly wouldn't take that risk.
"Oh, you bought a game three years ago and wanted to play it again? Sorry, we don't have the license for that game anymore, so you can't play it. But we have plenty of shiny new games that you can pay full price for!"
2 Like @rarson My sentiments exactly - seems I will now miss out on R-Type, Ninja Spirit on Wii VC and also Double Dragon on X360 XBLA because of the expiry of licences etc. If these games were available from a retailer in physical media I would be able to play them - looks like a visit to Amazon/Ebay for their original form retro games.
@areszues92 Rise again like the 'Frankenstein's Monster' it always has been more like - 'Live monster - Live' :lol:
I don't think it will be the last wave, but maybe soon? Sony, Microsoft, and Nintendo may go into making there own stream gaming with special TVs.
3 Like With some of the next-get-gaikai preachers here, let's just put it to the simple math:
Current gaming consoles are able to put out (hopefully) FullHD 3D at 60 fps.
1920*1080*32*60*2 = 7 962 624 000 bits per second ~= 7.4 gigabits of raw data in a second (and HDMI can handle that).
Assuming we're using lossless compression algorithms, sometimes network will be required to handle that load. Otherwise we'll either have lags or compression artifacts.
Now, let's take a look at UHDTV... I think it'll be safe to assume that's what's going to be good gaming resolution in 10 years.
7680*4320*32*60*2 = 127 401 984 000 bits per second ~= 120 gigabits of raw data in a second.
Now, as far as I heard, currently the fastest consumer ethernet cards out there can pull 10 gigabits per second (correct me if I'm wrong). That's not very inspiring, since 1 gigabit cards appeared in 1999, more than 10 years ago. Fiber optic record is 111 gigabits per second (and it's doubtful it'll go higher), wireless isn't worth mentioning (closing in on 1 gigabit).
So, in my humble opinion, assuming console manufacturers play their hand right, no way they disappear in the next 10 years due to streaming services competition.
Oh, and I totally forgot about sound. 7.1 for current gen, 22.1 for UHDTV. :)
The problem with lag is, all the bandwidth in the world is no guarantee against it. Latency is the issue with lag, not bandwidth (since any decent streaming service will surely scale the video feed dynamically to match the bandwidth).
I've heard that services like OnLive and Gaikai work well with little lag, but even the most minimal lag through those kind of services is still present and noticeable. It's one thing to have other player characters in the game lagging independently (if anyone remembers multiplayer gaming over dial-up), but it's a much bigger issue to have noticeable input lag.
But regardless, even if a person has the bandwidth for such a service, the bandwidth isn't going to last long once everyone else starts subscribing to the service, and it sure as heck isn't going to stay cheap. Many ISPs already cap bandwidth and many rural areas don't even have broadband, or are stuck with ridiculously limiting services like HughesNet (I had HughesNet when I lived in Michigan and my connection would be throttled to slower-than-dial-up speeds after watching a few youtube videos). I haven't heard anyone touting the merits of streaming services address the problems of bandwidth caps and inaccessibility for those living out of the range of broadband service.
2 Like @bl_phoenix I have no idea what you just typed, but you know that all Gaikai does is give you a video feed while a computer somewhere on the planet does the actual rendering of the game... right? It's not much different than streaming a video on Youtube. In fact, the only difference is that it reads keyboard and mouse input much like a flash game does.
I've used Gaikai and it runs absolutely perfectly. I ran Mass Effect 2 on a computer that would choke running it for real, in a browser, and it was as smooth as butter.
I don't believe that consoles will go away. Streaming is too inconvenient. People complain ALL THE TIME about having to be online to play Diablo 3 single player. People complain about not being able to play some single player games on Steam when they're not connected to the internet. Some people have bandwidth caps and streaming HD video is very very expensive on a cap unless it's a large one. I have a 4 and a half hour HD video on my computer and it's 15GB in file size. Streaming an HD game for me would be completely impossible with the bandwidth cap I have.
Until things like this are solved, I don't think streaming will kill consoles. Compete, sure... but not kill.
"all Gaikai does is give you a video feed while a computer somewhere on the planet does the actual rendering of the game... right? It's not much different than streaming a video on Youtube."
You're not just streaming video data off a server, you're generating it in real time and sending it at high resolution. If you're playing Gaikai on a laptop, then you probably don't need a 1080p stream; your laptop probably has a resolution lower than that. However, if you're playing on your home TV, then you'll want the 1080p feed and you'll be sucking up a lot of bandwidth.
I think it's worth mentioning that I rarely, if ever, have streamed a video in 1080p off Youtube without it lagging. So if Youtube is setting the expectations, then mine are very low.
"In fact, the only difference is that it reads keyboard and mouse input much like a flash game does."
A Flash game loads in your browser; all the processing is done locally. So it's nothing like a Flash game.
3 Like @jinzo9988 Ok, let me rephrase it just for you... if you come to the display close enough you'll see the little dots. They are called 'pixels'. And there're about 2 mln of these bastards on modern TVs. And every one of them can show a lot (about 17 mln, 32bit worth of switches) of different colors, and change that color about 50 (usually more) times per second. Now, something should tell these little pixels what they should show. And they don't care about if it's cloud or PC or God Almighty - they just need their 32bit of data. 60 times per second. Every last one of them, damned pixels. Double it for 3D picture, because some of us have two eyes, you know.
So now, the bus (it's just another smart word for cable) that connects cloud/PC/console/God/whatever to the screen should be able to transmit the data in question. And if bus can't handle the amount - picture won't be good enough. Dedicated multimedia cables (read "HDMI") can do that. Network cables can't, at least without compression and other "cheating" technologies.
Come on, it's not that hard!
@bl_phoenix Yep - forget the cloud name - imo publishers just want to sell people 'smoke' in a bottle :D
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